I was struck when sifting through the news by how many signs of a
failing candidate that McCain is showing.
His party is rebelling.
He can't make conservative pundits stay in line.
And his campaign is having massive infighting. They are calling Palin a
rogue, and get this, a /diva/. One adviser said: ""She is a diva. She
takes no advice from anyone," the McCain source said. "She does not have
any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else."
Partisanship aside, McCain has lost control of his image. His party, the
media and his campaign team are all beyond his control. By political science
standards, McCain is a failing candidate.
Showing posts with label Palin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Palin. Show all posts
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Sarah Palin: Leader of the Free World
Even typing that post title makes me shudder. It's a horrifying thought, isn't it? And part of the horror is the unique plausibility of it all. Despite the trends going against him right now, McCain could still feasibly win the election. Statistically, McCain has a 1 in 4 chance of dying in office. Sure he has "good genes", but those are not great odds. If you include the chances of serious disability that would inhibit ability to function as president, the odds get closer to 1-in-3 for McCain.
What does all this mean? Well, all things considered, the odds aren't all that bad for McCain. A 25% chance of death isn't too bad. But what it does mean is that Sarah Palin is under increased scrutiny as a candidate for the Vice Presidency. McCain is the oldest major party candidate in history, and the voters know it. If McCain were to die in office, the woefully unprepared Sarah Palin would take his place. Voters know this, and as such Palin is campaigning really for a position in limbo between the Presidency and the Vice Presidency. This makes her shortcomings even more apparent. If Palin screws up the Thursday debate royally, it could seriously endanger the ticket.
For a political junkie this universal lack of confidence in the readiness of Sarah Palin opens the door for crazy possibilities. What about a 269-269 electoral vote (e.g. Obama gets Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado minus New Hampshire)?
<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
In this case, the election gets tossed to congress. Some say that an election tie would favor Obama. I would tend to agree largely because the 12th amendment gives each state delegation one vote (i.e. one for Wyoming, one for California), and the in the incoming House Democrats will in all likelihood have a majority in a plurality of the delegations. Imagine though that McCain won the popular vote by a large margin (i.e. had strong 2nd place showings in the pacific and northeast and great GOTV in safe red states). In this case, House delegations from strong McCain states w/ a majority Democrat delegation (i.e. Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota, North Dakota, West Virginia, etc.) might be "forced" by public opinion to support McCain.
If the House does pick McCain in such a scenario, who's to say the majority Democrat senate has to pick Palin? Considering her plummeting favorability ratings, terrible interviews and glaring unreadiness, the Senate could easily select the obviously ready, willing and able Joe Biden. Imagine living in a pre-12th amendment world where the President and Vice President are voted for independently on the November ballot. Now imagine a McCain-Biden administration. Now imagine the also theoretically possible reverse: an Obama-Palin administration. No, stop laughing. Think about it. It's the longest of long shots, but hell if it isn't a fascinating possibility.
To see what kind of monkey wrench Biden or Palin could possibly throw into their own campaigns, tune in on Thursday to the Vice Presidential debates. Trust me, it's going to be fun. That much I guarantee.
What does all this mean? Well, all things considered, the odds aren't all that bad for McCain. A 25% chance of death isn't too bad. But what it does mean is that Sarah Palin is under increased scrutiny as a candidate for the Vice Presidency. McCain is the oldest major party candidate in history, and the voters know it. If McCain were to die in office, the woefully unprepared Sarah Palin would take his place. Voters know this, and as such Palin is campaigning really for a position in limbo between the Presidency and the Vice Presidency. This makes her shortcomings even more apparent. If Palin screws up the Thursday debate royally, it could seriously endanger the ticket.
For a political junkie this universal lack of confidence in the readiness of Sarah Palin opens the door for crazy possibilities. What about a 269-269 electoral vote (e.g. Obama gets Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado minus New Hampshire)?
In this case, the election gets tossed to congress. Some say that an election tie would favor Obama. I would tend to agree largely because the 12th amendment gives each state delegation one vote (i.e. one for Wyoming, one for California), and the in the incoming House Democrats will in all likelihood have a majority in a plurality of the delegations. Imagine though that McCain won the popular vote by a large margin (i.e. had strong 2nd place showings in the pacific and northeast and great GOTV in safe red states). In this case, House delegations from strong McCain states w/ a majority Democrat delegation (i.e. Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota, North Dakota, West Virginia, etc.) might be "forced" by public opinion to support McCain.
If the House does pick McCain in such a scenario, who's to say the majority Democrat senate has to pick Palin? Considering her plummeting favorability ratings, terrible interviews and glaring unreadiness, the Senate could easily select the obviously ready, willing and able Joe Biden. Imagine living in a pre-12th amendment world where the President and Vice President are voted for independently on the November ballot. Now imagine a McCain-Biden administration. Now imagine the also theoretically possible reverse: an Obama-Palin administration. No, stop laughing. Think about it. It's the longest of long shots, but hell if it isn't a fascinating possibility.
To see what kind of monkey wrench Biden or Palin could possibly throw into their own campaigns, tune in on Thursday to the Vice Presidential debates. Trust me, it's going to be fun. That much I guarantee.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Apology and Explanation
I accidentally deleted a post that I believe had comments. I was in the midst of deleting old drafts. I believe the post contained an ad done by a 527 about arctic hunting and Sarah Palin. My apologies to anyone who may have posted.
Honestly, I'd rather not repost the video because in retrospect it was a little bit over the top and tasteless. I'll even admit that it dipped into "unfair" at points. Now that I think about it, I think I'd probably retract the support I gave it in my previous post as well. I would like to talk about the greater themes a little bit though.
In reality though, the main reason that I liked it is because it reminded people that environmental preservation is one of the main causes of our time. Without significant action, we will lose lots of endangered species, including tigers, sea otters, polar bears, my home state's California Condor and countless others. It saddens me on many levels to see environmental preservation so far off the table in our national dialog.
And sure, the issue has come up briefly before. But honestly, at this point, any mention of the environment is outside of the media echo chamber. The media has demonstrated no desire to talk about the environment. When was the last time the media paid serious attention to our planet's rapidly collapsing ecosystem? I'm not just talking about global warming. I'm sorry if said previous post offended, but I was simply relieved to see a public appeal made once again on environmental grounds. When all is said and done, human beings are likely to be the species least affected by this presidential election. Regardless of the ad's effectiveness, I'm glad that there will be some reminder in the mainstream of what another 4 years of Republicans in the White House would do to the environment. The world simply can't afford it.
EDIT: Since Jacquie, Prince and Ally are the only people actively following the blog, I assume the apologies should go to you. Sorry!
Honestly, I'd rather not repost the video because in retrospect it was a little bit over the top and tasteless. I'll even admit that it dipped into "unfair" at points. Now that I think about it, I think I'd probably retract the support I gave it in my previous post as well. I would like to talk about the greater themes a little bit though.
In reality though, the main reason that I liked it is because it reminded people that environmental preservation is one of the main causes of our time. Without significant action, we will lose lots of endangered species, including tigers, sea otters, polar bears, my home state's California Condor and countless others. It saddens me on many levels to see environmental preservation so far off the table in our national dialog.
And sure, the issue has come up briefly before. But honestly, at this point, any mention of the environment is outside of the media echo chamber. The media has demonstrated no desire to talk about the environment. When was the last time the media paid serious attention to our planet's rapidly collapsing ecosystem? I'm not just talking about global warming. I'm sorry if said previous post offended, but I was simply relieved to see a public appeal made once again on environmental grounds. When all is said and done, human beings are likely to be the species least affected by this presidential election. Regardless of the ad's effectiveness, I'm glad that there will be some reminder in the mainstream of what another 4 years of Republicans in the White House would do to the environment. The world simply can't afford it.
EDIT: Since Jacquie, Prince and Ally are the only people actively following the blog, I assume the apologies should go to you. Sorry!
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Hypocrisy In Action: Bridge Edition
Wow, can you say hypocrisy? This is McCain addressing voters in MN following the major August 2007 Bridge Collapse. I wonder why the McCain camp is so touchy about that bridge...
Courtesy of The Daily Kos
Courtesy of The Daily Kos
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